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In wake of Trudeau's summit no-show, Japan raises possibility of a Trans-Pacific Partnership without Canada

Japanese officials confirmed that if all the other countries agree on a text, there's nothing stopping them from going ahead without Canada

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TOKYO — Though Prime Minister Justin Trudeau balked at finalizing the Trans-Pacific Partnership last month, Japanese officials say the other countries in the trade deal could decide to push ahead on it without Canada. 

The Liberal government continues to have concerns about the agreement — as a concession to Canada, it has been officially renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership — including over the protection it affords Canadian cultural industries and the auto industry.

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The Japanese ambassador to Canada, Kimihiro Ishikane, said in an interview last week that it would be better if all 11 of the countries negotiating the deal stuck together. “Some countries really wish to see the presence of Canada. Others might have less interest … So, I think this is a very delicate balance which is in question,” he said. 

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“So we are sincerely hoping and strongly hoping that we can go ahead with Canada on board, yes. Otherwise this delicate balance might be affected.” 

Trudeau's absence from the meeting in November gave other countries the impression of an 'unpredictable situation' with Canada.

In interviews with the National Post in Tokyo Monday, officials from Japan’s foreign affairs ministry confirmed that if all the other countries involved in TPP talks agree on a text, there’s nothing stopping them from going ahead without Canada and letting the Canadians accede whenever they are ready. 

“It would be called TPP 10,” quipped one official; the talks originally included 12 Pacific nations, but in January President Donald Trump withdrew the US from negotiations, and the revised deal has become known as TPP 11. With Trudeau’s absence from a meeting between heads of government at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting in November giving other countries the impression of an “unpredictable situation” with Canada, the official said, it’s natural for them to consider what might be possible without Trudeau signing on. (The Japanese officials quoted in this story were not authorized to speak on the record.)

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Joseph Pickerill, a spokesman for Canadian international trade minister François-Philippe Champagne, told the Post in an email countries have agreed that whenever six out of 11 countries ratify the original TPP, the CPTPP — which modifies the existing agreement rather than rewriting it — will come into force among ratified members “while others continue to work through issues.” At present, Japan, Australia and New Zealand have ratified the deal. 

“So this could all come together at the same time, in rapid succession or any other computation or sequence. That has always been the case,” he said.

Behind the scenes of Trudeau’s APEC no-show

Meanwhile, in an interview with the National Post in Tokyo Monday, Japanese officials detailed their account of Trudeau’s APEC no-show, which led to accusations he had “sabotaged” the deal. 

According to Japanese officials, at 1:15 p.m. on Nov. 10, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe walked into a bilateral meeting with Trudeau expecting they’d be on the same page about moving ahead with the deal, after months of progress in negotiations to resuscitate the deal after the US’s withdrawal. “All morning, there were no sounds from the Canadian side saying they weren’t on board,” an official told the Post. 

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But the Canadian prime minister told Abe he wasn’t ready. “It was a surprise,” and “very unusual,” according to the official. The Japanese trade minister was called in and explained the details of encounters with his Canadian counterpart, Champagne — discussions that had apparently given him the impression Canada was ready to move forward.

Meanwhile, nine other heads of government were waiting around a table for a meeting that was supposed to have started at 1:45 p.m. Unlike with the original TPP, which was agreed at a ministerial level, APEC co-chairs felt that having heads of government announce an agreement would send a stronger message internationally. Instead, Japanese officials said, this had a “negative effect.”

Abe “rushed” to join the other leaders after his meeting with Trudeau ran late, the official said, then had to explain to them that Trudeau wasn’t showing up. This was “also very unusual.”

The empty seat, foreground, for Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is seen during a meeting of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Danang, Vietnam, Friday, Friday, Nov. 10, 2017.
The empty seat, foreground, for Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is seen during a meeting of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Danang, Vietnam, Friday, Friday, Nov. 10, 2017. Photo by THE CANADIAN PRESS/AAP Image via AP-Mick Tsikas

Later the same evening Champagne and other countries’ trade ministers agreed on what the Japanese are calling an “agreement in principle” and the Canadians are calling a “framework.” A cautious statement from Global Affairs Canada announced progress had been made but warned Canada “will not be rushed into an agreement that is not in the interest of Canada.”

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Part of the new framework included the new name, which the Japanese official said was to make the Canadians “feel comfortable.” The Japanese preferred to retain as much of the original TPP as possible. “The less change is better,” said the official, “including the title.” 

But Canada is still reluctant, despite having been eager for the deal’s resurrection earlier this year — a change of position that the official called “very mysterious” but which the Japanese suspect has a lot to do with the ongoing renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Issues still need to be resolved 

A meeting is being planned for January, at which chief negotiators are expected to finalize the actual text of the CPTPP. It is expected to be relatively short, based on seven articles agreed upon in Vietnam. Some ministers will likely hold concurrent bilateral meetings. 

The Australians were especially miffed by Trudeau’s actions in Vietnam, their officials telling travelling press at the time that Canada was “sabotaging” the deal. The Australian High Commissioner declined the Post’s request for an interview last week. Asked to comment on the possibility of a CPTPP without Canada, the Australian foreign ministry referred to comments from trade minister Steven Ciobo in November, wherein he expressed disappointment at Trudeau’s decision but also optimism that remaining irritants could be sorted out.

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Pickerill said Canada has “a pathway to resolve certain issues” which are a barrier to Canada’s signing on to the deal. Canada wants a clause in the CPTPP which would apply to the entire agreement, allowing exemptions for cultural industries. (NAFTA contains a similar clause, which makes the CRTC’s Canadian content requirements possible, though it may be under threat in those negotiations.) But Japanese officials seemed perplexed about the reasons behind this, and emphasize they are not the only ones who feel that way.

Canadian Minister of International Trade Francois-Philippe Champagne, right, attend a Trans Pacific Partnership  ministerial meeting on the sidelines of the APEC leaders summit in Danang, Vietnam.
Canadian Minister of International Trade Francois-Philippe Champagne, right, attend a Trans Pacific Partnership  ministerial meeting on the sidelines of the APEC leaders summit in Danang, Vietnam. Photo by AP Photo/Na Son Nguyen, Pool

Within the original TPP — which Canada signed — are a variety of exemptions for specific Canadian industries. While there’s no clause that applies to the entire document, the same chapter-by-chapter approach was used in the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement the Liberal government signed with the European Union. (The bulk of both agreements had been negotiated by the previous Conservative government.)

The approach to cultural protections is not the only thing keeping CPTPP in limbo; Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam are trying to gain ground on state-owned enterprises, services and investment non-conforming measures and dispute settlement in the labour chapters, respectively.

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Canada has also raised concerns around the auto industry, especially as an impossible rules-of-origin demand from the U.S. complicates NAFTA. But Japanese officials Canada has not yet put forward any concrete proposals regarding autos. 

Pickerill said there are “too many hypotheticals” to answer a question about whether Canada is worried about the optics of being left out of the TPP. 

The government “will take whatever time is necessary to reach the optimal outcome,” he said.

• Email: mdsmith@postmedia.com | Twitter:

Marie-Danielle Smith travelled to Japan on a fellowship with The Foreign Press Centre Japan, a non-profit independent private organization.

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