What Victory Parade? Fico and Vučić Get Sick Leave For Putin’s Day

Vučić cites blood pressure problems. Fico has anxiety from his assasination attempt. This year, no European leaders will be present in Moscow for Russia’s ‘Victory Day’ on 9 May.

Instead, this week Kyiv will ratify a minerals deal with the US, EU ministers will meet in Warsaw for informal Gymnich talks, and Friedrich Merz will tour Paris and Warsaw – around the time they both sign a new bilateral treaty in Nancy.

Merz plans to visit Paris and Warsaw on 7 May; informal EU talks in Warsaw 7-8 May; Poland and France to pen defence treaty on 9 May

GLOBAL/REGIONAL

• French President Emmanuel Macron has confirmed that France and Poland will sign a ‘historic’ friendship and cooperation treaty in Nancy on 9 May.
• The location is highly symbolic of Polish-French relations, as the Polish King Stanisław Leszczynski, father-in-law of King Louis XV of France, settled there in 1736 after being exiled as Duke of Lorraine.
• The treaty will aim to secure those relations for years to come, replacing the long-outdated agreement from 1991. Polish PM Donald Tusk has said ‘this could be a breakthrough treaty in terms of mutual security guarantees’, while it is the first such agreement France will sign with a country that is not its neighbour.

• Macron also said that Paris will be the first foreign visit made by Friedrich Merz as German Chancellor – arriving in the French capital in the morning of 7 May before then travelling to Warsaw in the afternoon of the same day. 
• Macron assessed that the Weimar Triangle could now ‘consolidate’ international action, pursuing its strategy of strengthening Europe.

• Ukraine had invited European leaders on 9 May for a summit to counter the optics from Vladimir Putin‘s victory parade in Moscow –but Tusk will be in Nancy with Macron as aforementioned, while British PM Keir Starmer plans to attend a defence summit in Oslo. Merz doesn’t want to go without the rest of the team.
• Instead, leaders are trying to find a suitable day ‘in the first or second week of [Merz’s] chancellorship’. EU FMs might also still go to Lviv on 9 May, following their informal Gymnich meeting from 7-8 May in Warsaw.
• The informal meeting will include working sessions on EU-UK relations; Russia’s aggression against Ukraine; EU-US relations; candidate countries; hybrid threats.

• Britain and the EU are set to sign a formal declaration at a 19 May summit committing to ‘free and open trade‘ in defiance of Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.
• A leaked draft seen by Politico promises a ‘new strategic partnership’ between London and Brussels based on ‘maintaining global economic stability and our mutual commitment to free and open trade’. It also pledges ‘unwavering commitment’ to Kyiv.

• EU Tech Sovereignty Chief Henna Virkkunen will travel to Japan on 13 May to discuss a digital partnership and other pressing issues.
  This will follow a visit by Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič to Tokyo this week, after meeting with his Japanese counterpart Minoru Kiuchi. ‘At a time of growing geopolitical uncertainty, deepening cooperation between the EU and Japan on economic security is not only timely, but essential’, wrote Kiuchi on X.
  Last week, Šefčovič met with Piyush Goyal, the Minister of Industry in India, as both sides aim for an EU-India deal this year. Both European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen and Indian PM Narendra Modi have said they want to iron out a deal this year to create a common market of almost 2 billion consumers.

• The EU roadmap for phasing out Russian fuel is set to be published on 6 May, including measures like diversification of supply and increased energy efficiency.
• Last week, EU environment ministers met in Poland today to talk about the response to a rising tide of disinformation aimed at the bloc’s energy policies and divestment from fossil fuels. It was a timely discussion following a historic outage across Spain’s electricity grid.

• Hungary has been ranked as the third-worst country for press freedom in the EU, according to the 2024 World Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders (RSF). Globally, Hungary stands at 67th place – falling from 68th place in 2024. Slovakia also dropped from 29th globally to 38th position.
• Press freedom also deteriorated across much of the Balkans, with Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Moldova, North Macedonia and Romania all seeing declines in their rankings. Kosovo experienced the sharpest drop, falling 24 places to 99th. Albania, Montenegro and Serbia recorded slight improvements.
• In contrast, Czechia rose to 10th place in the world (from 17th last year), and Poland came in 31st (47th last year). Estonia climbed to second place in the world, beaten only by Norway, marking its highest-ever position.

Kyiv to ratify US minerals deal on 8 May; Kos calls for opening of Ukraine accession negotiations despite Hungarian opposition

UKRAINE

• Kyiv and Washington have signed a bilateral agreement establishing the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund – and Ukraine‘s parliament will hold a vote on 8 May to ratify the deal.
• According to the agreement, Ukraine will contribute 50% of future revenue with royalties from newly issued licenses for critical minerals, oil and gas exploration; the US will contribute through direct payments or new military assistance – though it‘s still not clear whether US security guarantees for the country were discussed.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the deal is a step toward ending the war, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called it a full-fledged economic partnership that strengthens the US position in talks with Russia.

• In addition, the US State Department approved the potential sale of F-16 training and sustainment, along with related equipment, to Ukraine for $310 million.
• The Telegraph has also reported that the US has quietly dropped demands that Ukraine hold a presidential election from its latest ceasefire proposal.

• The US has not abandoned its role as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said last week.
• Her earlier comments – like that the US was no longer prepared to fly around the world ‘at the drop of a hat‘ to help end a war – were widely interpreted as suggesting that Washington had scaled back its involvement in peace talks.
• She later clarified that ‘Right now our posture is the same, but if there is no progress it would change, and that change would be regarding our acting as mediator‘.

• President Volodymy Zelenskyy rejected a proposal from Vladimir Putin for a temporary ceasefire from 8-11 May – to coincide with Russia‘s Victory Day celebrations. Instead, he stated that Ukraine needs a full and immediate ceasefire of at least 30 days, not a symbolic pause for Moscow‘s parade.
• Speaking at a joint news conference in Prague alongside Czech President Petr Pavel on Sunday, Zelenskyy also said that unless increased pressure were applied, Putin would take no real steps to end the conflict: ‘Today marks the 54th day that Russia has ignored even the American proposal to completely cease fire‘.

• Meanwhile, the Kremlin continues to set maximalist conditions for peace talks. 
• FM Sergey Lavrov ruled out a deal with Ukraine unless Crimea and other occupied territories are recognised as Russian – a red line for Kyiv, and a marked hardening of Moscow’s position after Trump said Crimea would remain under Russian control.
• Putin also insists that Russia take control of four regions of Ukraine it doesn’t fully occupy as part of any agreement to end his war.

• Thirteen EU countries at the Three Seas Initiative summit in Warsaw adopted a wide-ranging declaration of support for Ukraine – but Hungary refused to endorse key sections, which included explicit support for Ukraine‘s territorial integrity, future EU membership and broader anti-Kremlin positions.
• PM Viktor Orbán then hit back at Zelenskyy, saying Hungarians alone will decide their stance on Ukraine joining the EU, not Kyiv ‘or the bureaucrats in Brussels‘.
• This came after Zelenskyy said that an overwhelming majority of Hungarians support Ukraine‘s EU accession: ‘You know he [Orbán] conducted his own survey – supposedly showing people were against it. He controlled that poll. But there‘s another poll, and it shows 70% in favor of Ukraine joining the EU‘.

• EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has confirmed that Brussels will open accession negotiations with both Ukraine and Moldova ‘simultaneously and as soon as possible‘, despite objections from Budapest over Ukraine joining.
• Ukraine and Hungary have also agreed to launch regular consultations aimed at unblocking Ukraine‘s EU accession negotiations. Deputy PM for European Integration Olha Stefanishyna announced that the next round of talks is scheduled for 12 May and will determine whether compromise is possible.

• The EU is set to end Ukraine‘s temporary trade liberalization as the ‘trade visa-free‘ regime (valid until 5 June 2025) will not be extended. The EC plans a smooth transition to a new Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that will formally codify trade liberalisation terms.

Fico and Vučić ‘suddenly ill’ and will miss Moscow victory parade; gap between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki narrows ahead of 18 May

CZECHIA