Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call on May 6, inviting Mr Modi for the G-7 summit, provides a diplomatic opening, besides mitigating domestic political pressure
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had been on the diplomatic backfoot ever since the May 10 India-Pakistan ceasefire. US President Donald Trump’s repeated claims of facilitating the ceasefire and Pakistan’s financial rescue packages from the Bretton Woods institutions appeared to be ignoring Pakistani complicity in the Pahalgam terror attack. Even worse, Pakistan got leadership positions in the UN Security Council’s counter-terrorism and sanctions committees.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call on May 6, inviting Mr Modi for the G-7 summit, provides a diplomatic opening, besides mitigating domestic political pressure. Unlike Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who merely indicated the “possibility” of attending, Mr Modi promptly accepted. Considering that Mexico and Brazil had got invited in May, the delayed invitation to India was apparently due to cogitation amongst G-7 members. Mr Carney explained, answering media queries, that the Indian presence was necessary as it was the fifth largest economy globally and central to many supply chains. He added that bilateral discussions had confirmed “continued law enforcement dialogue”, which stems from the 2023 Nijjar assassination in Canada.
Following Mr Carney’s surprise election victory, with Canadian domestic opinion flipping after Donald Trump’s hounding of Canada, an opportunity for resetting relations between India and Canada has now emerged. Canada’s top priority was to handle Mr Trump first. Mr Carney demonstrated statesmanship in visiting the White House immediately after assuming power. Sitting beside Mr Trump, he politely rebutted the false claims and provocative assertions calling Canada America’s 51st state and its leader a “governor”.
Mr Carney, after his US visit, has publicly maintained that old ties with the US are over. Past Canadian leaders have also worried about over-dependence on America. President Bill Clinton had negotiated the trilateral North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, covering Canada and Mexico. President Trump, during his first term, renegotiated it. It was reincarnated as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020. That stands abandoned now over allegations that both neighbours are not checking illegal migration and fentanyl smuggling. Canada, consequently, needs new markets and trading partners. The European Union, China and India naturally align with this strategy. Also invited are Brazil and South Africa, which with India make the three original members of the five-member Brics. The other two, China and Russia, are uninvited.
The Canadian statement after the Carney-Modi conversation mentions deep people-to-people ties and “significant” commercial links. The two-way trade was $9.36 billion in 2023, dropping to $8.37 billion last year. Canadian Pension Funds have invested over $75 billion in India. Finally, it too notes “continued law enforcement dialogue and discussions addressing security concerns”. This element disrupted India-Canada relations after the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, allegedly a pro-Khalistan activist, in Canada in June 2023. Although former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau triggered the controversy, the US authorities worsened it by uncovering an Indian official’s role in a failed attempt to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York. Canadians have subsequently arrested some Indian-origin persons in the Nijjar case.
At present India-Canada relations are strained, with diplomatic representation downgraded, following the withdrawal of high commissioners. The defeat of Jagmeet Singh, president of the National Democratic Party, seen as sympathetic to the Khalistan movement and key supporter of the Trudeau minority government, removes one obstacle.
The South Asian diaspora constitutes 7.1 per cent of the Canadian population, numbering 40 million today. Interestingly, of these Sikhs and Hindus are 2.3 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively. Thus, unlike in India, where Sikhs are minuscule compared to the majority Hindu community, in Canada the numbers are evenly matched. Canada also has some of the oldest Sikh gurdwaras in North America, dating from the early 1900s. The Sikhs are heavily concentrated in some provinces like British Columbia and Ontario. That provides electoral clout, as reflected in Sikhs holding important political posts, in provincial and federal governments.
The Khalistan issue, lingering for decades, was poorly handled by the Narendra Modi government. The farmers’ protests against the Union government’s farm laws created unnecessary confrontation between Punjab’s farmers, mainly Sikh, and a Hindutva-inspired Union government. This communalisation of an issue affecting rural econo-mies across India only energised existing, though marginal and misguided, pro-Khalistan lobbies in the Anglophone Western nations. Their hold is greater in Canada because of the rural socio-economic profile of most Sikh immigrants.
The inability of governments in both India and Canada to understand this complex interplay of electoral, religious and economic factors in each other’s country has frayed relations over the last decade. Canada, under its new Prime Minister Mark Carney, envisions diversifying their commercial and economic engagements beyond the US. He supports joining the European Union’s defence strategy of self-dependence without America. India-Canada relations since 1947 have undulated between attempted closer engagement and disruption either over India’s nuclear programme or escalating Khalistani activities. President Donald Trump, by savagely targeting Canada despite an existing economic framework, may have created the economic and commercial opening that India and Canada have repeatedly missed in the past, due to collateral factors. For instance, in 2007 a CEO Round Table envisioned goods trade to cross $10 billion, with matching services’ trade. Almost two decades later, the numbers are below that mark.
However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will face a challenging scenario. His handling of President Trump will be closely watched, having been repeatedly embarrassed by Trumpian claims of “mediation” to achieve the India-Pakistan ceasefire. Also under scrutiny will be his ability to reset relations with Canada.
However, Mr Modi’s propensity to address the diaspora needs to be calibrated. Gathering folks predominantly of one faith and adopting an Indian election-rally narrative merely widens the communal divide there and worsens political discord at home. He should meet community leaders at a smaller gathering, avoiding divisive political narrative. Pro-Khalistan elements are unfortunately already marshalling forces to disrupt his functions. Prime Minister Mark Carney has listed three core missions for the G-7 summit. One, peace and security and countering foreign interference and transnational crime. Two, building energy security and accelerating digital transition. Three, securing partnerships with the private sector for creating infrastructure and remunerative jobs. Though unstated, the G-7 members will likely urge President Trump to address their economic and geopolitical concerns. One example being his unwillingness to confront Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. Trade disruption will undoubtedly figure too.
This G-7 summit will be quite unlike earlier ones. The enemy is not without, but amidst them. The world will await whether President Donald Trump can be cajoled to abandon his disruptive and isolationist vision.
The writer is a former secretary in the external affairs ministry. He tweets at @ambkcsingh.
