Mexico's Official Party to Win Again in 2030, Predicts Houston's Baker Energy Consultancy in a New Report

The report describes the charismatic leadership of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), and predicts that his MORENA-led alliance will win in 2030 and beyond

HOUSTON, TX, UNITED STATES, September 23, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ -- The report examines the core elements of AMLO’s 2024 campaign strategy and the governance style and outlook for the MORENA-led alliance. The authors identify stratagems that were in play in the 2024 elections and which—other things being equal—will also determine the outcome of the 2030 elections.

“Mr. López Obrador is a once-in-a-century politician who defies neutral, academic categorization,” says George Baker, principal author, adding “he inspires two-thirds of the voting population but he infuriates the other third.” The authors report that the president presents himself as the paladin of the poor, as a resource nationalist, and as the oracle for and guardian of the public interest. In these roles, he bewitches followers but alarms opponents as well as international investors and Mexico’s trading partners.

The authors identify seven components of the governance model of Mr. López Obrador, which, if followed by his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, will allow the MORENA-led alliance to win a plurality of votes in the elections of 2030 and beyond:

1. Presidential Access: His daily press conferences serve journalists in their having access to the president, allowing them to pose questions (some curated) and plea for his attention to injustices. He benefits by having a platform on which to showcase himself as a leader with a sympathetic heart and ear. He informs the public of national and international affairs and offers highlights of the progress of his economic and infrastructure programs.

2. Social programs: His government has expanded social programs, to include students, other young adults and seniors. In exit polls, 65% of MORENA voters reported that they were direct beneficiaries.

3. Historical revisionism: He characterizes his six predecessors and their administrations as elitist, corrupt and with policies and institutions that go against the national interest. He offers a new panorama of Mexican history.

4. Energy Sovereignty: His policies promote the state-owned oil and electricity companies in their respective markets but at the expense of foreign investors who had discerned opportunity from the Energy Reforms of 2013-18.

5. Military contracting: AMLO unexpectedly expanded the role of the military in areas traditionally handed by civil servants; for example, he assigned the Army to the construction of an airport and regional rail system, by-passing rules of open government procurement in place since the signing of the North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993.

6. Disinformation: During his Monday-Friday press conferences, in response to unfavorable statistics, Mr. López Obrador affirms that he has «otros datos» that show the contrary. There is a weekly segment dedicated to debunking the “lies” of named journalists and political opponents.

7. Reputational targeting: Interspersed in his replies to journalists during his press conferences are musings that are meant to delegitimize named and unnamed opponents. The president criticizes persons, institutions, and foreign governments with whom he disagrees. He characterizes “conservatives,” his collective term for political opponents, as “hypocritical, corrupt, authoritarian.”

The report discerns that the judicious placement of allies in independent commissions, the president obtained favorable rulings, as, for example, the 2024 award of super-representation by his alliance in the congress. His alliance then approved the constitutional reform of the judiciary in defiance of the full-throated opposition of minority parties and cautionary statements from abroad about the risks to the rule of law.

The 20-page report (MEI 984) concludes that if the MORENA alliance can stay consolidated in an economy likely to reel from debt, capital flight, international litigation, and narco violence, it will continue to win a plurality of votes in future elections. The authors speculate that the even if those challenges are successfully, met, the alliance could break into two camps over energy policy: those that seek foreign investors with roles as market actors and those who would limit them to roles as contractors to the state-owned oil and power companies in public-private partnerships.

George Baker
Baker & Associates, Energy Consultants
+1 832-434-3928
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